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Bitcoin derivatives data shows pro traders ignored today’s $41K pump

Bitcoin price may have pumped 10% to $41,000 but derivatives indicators show top traders aren’t feeling so bullish.

Sometimes all Bitcoin (BTC) needs to pump 10% is a positive remark from someone like Elon Musk.

The Tesla CEO has been pointed to as the culprit for the recent downturn after the company’s May 12 announcement explaining that it would no longer accept Bitcoin payments due to environmental concerns. Musk followed up by saying that he was looking into other cryptocurrencies that required 99% less energy consumption. 

However, on June 13, the situation reversed as Musk reassured the public that Tesla did not sell any additional Bitcoin. The post also said that the electric-car producer would resume taking BTC payments as soon as its Bitcoin mining relied on a minimum of 50% clean energy.

In bear markets, top traders act with caution

While retail investors and algorithmic trading bots jump into action as soon as bullish or bearish signals and news flash, top traders tend to act more with more caution. Those who have been around the crypto markets long enough know that positive news might end up being ignored or severely downplayed in bear markets.

On the other hand, even potentially negative news seems to have little to no impact during bull runs. For example, on Sept. 26, 2020, Kucoin was hacked for $150 million. The following week, on Oct. 1, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged BitMEX for operating an unregistered trading platform and violating Anti-Money Laundering regulations.

Two weeks later, police reportedly questioned the founder of OKEx, forcing the exchange to suspend crypto withdrawals. Had this series of negative news happened while Bitcoin was flat or in a bearish phase, the price would have undoubtedly have stalled during a bear market.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase in USD, Sept. 2020. Source: TradingView

As shown above, Bitcoin barely had any negative impact in late September and October 2020. In fact, by the end of November 2020, Bitcoin was up 74% in two months. This is the main reason why top traders tend to ignore positive news during bear markets and vice-versa.

The 3-month futures premium is neutral

A futures contract seller will usually demand a price premium to regular spot exchanges. This situation is not exclusive to crypto markets and happens in every derivatives market because in addition to the exchange liquidity risk, the seller is postponing settlement and this results in a higher price.

The 3-month futures premium (basis rate) usually trades at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets. When futures are trading below the regular spot exchange price, it signals a short-term bearish sentiment.

Huobi 3-month Bitcoin futures basis. Source: Skew

As shown above, the future basis has been below 11% since May 20 and flirting with bearish territory on multiple occasions as it tested 5%. The current level indicates a neutral position from top traders.

The options skew is no longer signaling fear

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options side-by-side. It will turn positive when the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when market makers are bullish and this causes the 25% delta skew indicator to enter the negative range.

Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

The above chart confirms that top traders, including arbitrage desks and market markers, are currently uncomfortable with Bitcoin price as the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher. However, the current 7% positive skew is far from the 20% exaggerated fear seen in late May.

Derivatives markets show no evidence of top traders getting excited about the recent $40,000 hike. On the bright side, there is room for leverage buyers to mount positions. Stronger upswings usually occur when investors are least expecting, and the current scenario seems to be a perfect example.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Could both e-cash.org and bitcoin.org domains have both been registered by Satoshi?

One thing I have always found rather peculiar about the initial communications from Satoshi in his first mail to Wei Dai on 8/22/08 was that he refers to his project as „Electronic Cash” and then he later substitutes this to „Bitcoin” when publishing the white paper. I find this odd considering that he had already registered the domain bitcoin.org on 8/18/08, so he must have already had the idea in his head at the time of the email that it would be called Bitcoin. The other thing I noticed was that the domain e-cash.org was also registered anonymously less than a month prior on 7/20/08. What are the odds that somebody else just happened to buy up that domain right at the same time? Has anybody connected these 2 domains together before and is there any further information which could shine a light on the identify of Satoshi?
One other small point…in a bitcointalk post by Satoshi, he mentions that open sourced projects should use .org domains as opposed to .com. If Satoshi’s original email to Wei Dai reflects the initial name he was considering, he very possible would have registered e-cash.org.

MicroStrategy Sells $500 Million Notes To Buy Bitcoin

MicroStrategy has successfully sold off $500 million worth of notes (“the notes”) which it announced it was selling on June 8th in a press conference, to buy Bitcoin. The notes were sold to qualified institutional buyers in a private offering in reliance to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933. They were all sold […]

AAVE Price Prediction

Aave is a decentralized non-custodial liquidity protocol where users can participate as depositors or borrowers. Depositors can provide liquidity to the market to earn a passive income, while borrowers are able to borrow in an overcollateralized (perpetually) or undercollateralized (one-block liquidity) fashion. This Portal links to the key resources on Aave to understand the fundamentals […]

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Is DeFi technology easy enough to adapt to non-finance industries?

DeFi gets a bad rap for being complex, technology makes it simple enough to cut out middlemen in non-finance industries ranging from energy to e-commerce.

Uquid

Decentralized finance is far and away the hottest topic in crypto, touted as a way to make a fortune by backing the right token, but also a tool for taking the crypto you were hodling in a cold wallet and set it to work earning interest at extraordinary rates.

There’s a reason DeFi has grown so large so quickly that it has slowed the Ethereum blockchain where most of the projects live to a crawl, and sent gas prices for transactions soaring to $10, $50, even $100 at times.

DeFi is mostly talked about in terms of taking over the banking and brokerage functions that big finance thrives on, but the technology can be used to revolutionize many other businesses, from energy to e-commerce.

That reason is simple: At its core, decentralized finance is about eliminating the middleman.

Why give a bank your money — for a paltry fraction of 1% interest — for it to loan out, when you can loan it out for orders of magnitude more through a crypto lending site?

Or invest it in a liquidity pool that uses an automated market maker to create a shared pot of tokens that cryptocurrency traders can sell to or buy from, rather than waiting to find a trader who wants to buy what they’re selling at the price they want. The way liquidity pools work is that liquidity providers lock funds into pools in exchange for fees paid on each transaction — which are usually paid in an exchange’s native token.

All you’re doing, really, is replacing the institutions facilitating those transactions —the man in the middle of taking it from Jane and giving it to John — with smart contracts that automate both the introduction and the exchange of currency. In other words, it turns a peer-to-business-to-peer transaction into a peer-to-peer transaction.

The difference is blockchain’s immutable nature, which makes it impossible for either side to cheat. Because it is trustless, you don’t need to pay a trusted intermediary to do that for you.

Beyond finance

Financial transactions are the low-hanging fruit for DeFi, as they are very frequent and the value of the currency being traded is so large. That said, DeFi in its trading, staking and yield farming formats can get pretty complex. But, that’s mostly because people are willing to do very risky things like betting on margin with borrowed money.

However, DeFi works for pretty much any data you need to transfer from one party to another. That can be e-commerce, insurance, digital identity, and even electric power — the possibilities are endless. And in most cases, they are fairly simple.

Decentralized energy is raising enough interest that it’s been given its own nickname — DeEn instead of DeFi — even though it also uses DApps and smart contracts, and generally lives on the Ethereum blockchain. Other than removing the middlemen — brokers and utilities — the only real difference is kilowatts instead of kilobytes.

A year ago, German sustainable energy firm Lition launched its blockchain-based, decentralized peer-to-peer Energy Exchange, which lets individual consumers choose exactly which source to buy their energy from inexpensive or green or local power producers — whatever they choose.

It’s up and running, and according to a power industry publication consumers are saving an average of 20% on utilities while power producers are seeing revenue go up 30%.

Decentralizing ecommerce

E-commerce is another field ripe for disruption by DeFi, and one of the companies doing it is Uquid, which is aiming to build a bridge between DeFi and e-commerce.

One way it is doing this is through its Defito Finance arm, which concentrates on shopper loyalty programs using tokens earned with every sale or purchase.

The site pulls in three techniques commonly used in DeFi trading, loaning and mining operations and adapts them to the needs of an e-commerce site.

Shopping mining is a loyalty program that creates and awards newly mined tokens with every purchase from Uquids many online stores, which offer everything from video games and music to subscriptions for streaming services like Spotify and Xbox Live. This uses one of Defito’s native tokens, the DeFi Shopping Stake (DSS). Once mined, these tokens are loaded into a smart contract that lets them be used for future purchases from the Uquid sites, or for staking in the liquidity pools.

Defito’s other token is the DTO, a governance token which can be earned by contributing liquidity to the shopping liquidity pool. Instead of making it possible for cryptocurrency traders to buy and sell tokens, the Defito pools represent digital goods on Uquid’s ecommerce sites ranging from games and business software to gift cards and mobile top-up cards. An automated shopping maker connects pools of goods from different suppliers, allowing token holders to search for and track the best prices for the amount of those goods they wish to buy. These sites accept cryptocurrency in payment.

Both DTO and DSS can be used for staking and payment, but DTO brings governance voting rights, including on whether DSS tokens should be burned to increase their value or used to develop the rewards system.

Another DeFi token is Uquid (UQC), a decentralized ERC-20 token that can be used for a variety of more traditional DeFi services including staking, lending, borrowing and token swaps, as well as goods including utility, grocery, and pharmacy vouchers from chains around the world.

Finally, Uquid has recently added a fourth token for its new NFT marketplace, NFTD. The non-fungible tokens are at the heart of a digital products marketplace where they can be used to provide buyers of digital goods clear ownership rights. It’s a Binance Smart Chain utility token aimed at things like social media content from TikTok and YouTube videos to photographs and music, as well as Uquid’s other digital content.

Learn more about Uquid

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph does not endorse any content or product on this page. While we aim at providing you all important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor this article can be considered as an investment advice.

Why is this burn address starting to get confirmations?

Can anyone explain why the burn address
1111111111111111111114oLvT2 started receiving confirmations only on 8th June? 1st transaction is 11yrs?

I thought a burn address doesn’t get any confirmations, especially all I checked are through OP_return?
transactions from 11yrs with no confirmation
10-20 confirmations started 8/6/2021, by now reached about 365 or something

Also, the same address gives an error here:
https://blockchain.com/btc/address/1111111111111111111114olvt2

Why this burn address starting to get confirmations?

can anyone explain why this burning address
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/address/1111111111111111111114oLvT2

Started receiving Confirmations only in 8th June?1st TX is 11yrs?
.
I thought a burning address don’t get any confirmations, especially all I checked r thru OP_Return?
transactions from 11yrs with no confirmation
10-20 confirmations started 8/6/2021, by now reached about 365 or something
.
Also, the same address gives an error here
https://blockchain.com/btc/address/1111111111111111111114olvt2
.

What is Monero and why do cybercriminals love it?

DeFi hacker returns all $25 million of stolen funds

Monero XMR/USD is a cryptocurrency token that gives fraudsters more freedom from the tracking mechanisms and tools integrated by the BTC blockchain. It’s even been dubbed the “privacy token.”

“The savvier criminals are using Monero,” Rick Holland, chief information security officer at cyber threat intelligence company Digital Shadows, told CNBC in an interview.

As you may know, Bitcoin’s public ledger is visible to everyone. That means everyone can see each and every transaction on it. Cybercriminals are turning to currencies with additional anonymity, of which Monero’s not the only one. Dash and Zcash are two more examples.

Monero: ransomware criminals’ cryptocurrency of choice

Anonymity is ingrained in Monero’s DNA. Even its developers, who introduced it in 2014, remain largely anonymous. Its most important aspects are confidentiality and privacy. Monero has its own blockchain, which conceals practically all transaction details. It hides the amount of the transaction, the recipient, and the sender. These features made Monero quite popular on the underground marketplace AlphaBay before it closed down four years ago. Holland added in the interview:

It’s almost like we’re seeing, at least from a cybercriminal perspective, a resurgence … in Monero, because it has inherently more privacy than some of the other coins out there.

There are certain obstacles to mainstreaming this privacy-loving currency. In fact, it’s exactly this privacy-first feature that prevents Monero from becoming mainstream. Many regulated exchanges won’t list it which by default makes Monero less liquid than other coins. 

The Future of Monero

Regulators have every right to tell exchanges that they risk losing their license if they list the Monero coin, according to CNBC. On the other hand, markets enabling peer to peer Monero to fiat transfers tend to be difficult to regulate and it’s safe to say this won’t change any time soon. There’s also the misconception that cybercriminals will remain within U.S. jurisdiction. They could operate from abroad just as easily – much more easily, in fact. 

Cyber criminals can even combine clean coins with illegal funds to create a new type of coin. They can swap the new coin for Bitcoin or to Monero and then use Monero to buy BTC again with the ultimate goal of cashing out their coins to the fiat currency of choice.

The post What is Monero and why do cybercriminals love it? appeared first on Invezz.

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